Camelia Florela Voinea, "Artificial Polity: Anticipatory Modelling and Simulation of Political Systems. Applications to Democratic Polities in Eastern Europe "
European Quarterly of Political Attitudes and Mentalities ISSN 2285-4916 ISSN-L 2285-4916 Volume 10 Issue No.3 July 2021 pp.1-24.Published: 25 July 2021
Models of corruption, like Briberyscape and Baronscape (Voinea, 2013), view the governance model as decisively influenced by a certain type of access to public resources in both autocratic and democratic types of political systems. These models prove that agents and their interactions can be approached on multiple levels and with different representations of the agents and the interaction structure and dynamics (see Figure 2).
4. Research Approach: Issues & Questions
Conceptual model of an artificial polity as a structural coupling of a political system and a political culture.
For some configuration of the value orientation map (see Figure 4), a polity characteristic is represented as proportional to the dynamic level of belief which is based on that value orientations map. As value orientations map are dynamically changing during meaning communication, the polity operation is described by its degree of legitimacy.
The polity operation simulation scenarios are: (i) support for democracy, and (ii) satisfaction with democracy.
An artificial political culture is defined itself as an anticipatory system which has a Value Model as its internal model (Voinea, 2021). The value set is defined as a set of 10 basic permanent values (Schwarz, 2012). In this set, each value is characterized by its strength: value’ strength is codified as a decimal number in the range (0, 1), where the “strength” describes an informal level of attachment of the system to that value. Value’ strengths are continuously updated as the functional sub-systems of the AP Model process and communicate meaning.
Artificial Polity Simulation Model.
Artificial Polity Simulation Model has been developed on NetLogo platform. The model employs a representation with different types of agents with different political beliefs (i.e., ideologies) as individual agents and institutional agents, with different areas of interaction (that is, interaction between individual agents, interaction between individuals and institutional agents, and interactions between institutional agents), and with a network of relationships between individual agents. The system could be initialized with various number of individual and institutional agents. During a simulation run, the system lets the agents interact such that political attitudes emerge and dynamically change by means of beliefs and value orientations updates as result of repeated interactions. The value orientation maps are thus generated and employed in the meaning-processing and meaning-communication operation of sub-systems in the system of the artificial polity as an anticipatory system. The Artificial Polity Model updates its internal (operational) state by taking into consideration (a) the state of its internal model(s) at a future moment of time (Rosen’s view on anticipatory systems), and (b) its own state at a future moment of time in case that the model of the system is the system itself (Dubois’ view on strong/weak anticipatory systems).
Survey Data from Public Databases.
Value orientations maps are generated from survey data as discussed in (Voinea, 2021b).
Polity operational characteristics and patterns are generated by the APM simulation model as based on the survey data concerning:
Source: average number of index points: 5.84 index points; max.: 6.4 index points (2013); min.: 5.2 index points (2017). TheGlobalEconomy.com,
Diagram 4. Poland Legitimacy Index
Source: average number of index points: 3.86 index points; max.: 4.5 index points (2013); min.: 3.2 index points (2017).
TheGlobalEconomy.com, url: Poland State legitimacy index - data, chart | TheGlobalEconomy.com . Accessed: 4/11/2021
Diagram 5. Romania Voter Turnout: Parliamentary Elections 1990-2020
Diagram 6. Poland Case Study: Poland Turnout / Parliamentary
The simulation runs with APM as anticipatory system with an artificial political culture model have generated the simulation results for (a), (b) and (c).
(Left): Public survey data
Romania Case Study.
(Right): Data generated by simulation runs with the Artificial Polity Model (APM) and Artificial political Culture Model (APCM)
(Left) Public survey data (Source: IDEA);
Poland Case Study
(Right) Data generated by simulation runs with the Artificial Polity Model (APM) and Artificial political Culture Model (APCM).
9. Preliminary Results
 Paper presented at the 78th MPSA’2021 International Virtual Conference, Paper Session: “New Approaches to Study Legislatures, Policy, and Political Systems”, 16 April 2021.
 The research work reported in this paper describes the situation in which all the sub-system develop horizontally, while other versions which have been studied but not reported here develop in an imbricated manner. The experiments include scenarios not fully reported in this paper, namely scenarios in which the anticipatory system AP is defined following Rosen’s definition (1985), and other scenarios in which the anticipatory system AP is defined following Dubois’ definition (1998).